Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 2.7% on 9 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 9 Jan 2025 to 13 Jan 2025, the highest close was 3.5% on 10 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 13 Jan 2025. $23.92K traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 14, 9:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 9 Jan 2025 – 13 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2025 | 2.7% |
| 13 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Runescapeiscool | Yes | 251.46 |
| fukliyingwatnrs | No | 1.06 |
| ExhaustedBoyBilly | Yes | 0.03 |
| chertilliano228 | No | 0.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Palisades fire in California spreads to Beverly Hills by January 12, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Pacific Time). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The fire will be considered to have spread to Beverly Hills if it spreads across Beverly Hills' official boundary (see: https://maps.app.goo.gl/5B4nWVhonyZM8yBW9) The Primary resolution source is official updates from the fire map at https://www.fire.ca.gov/. However, a consensus of credible reporting or video/photo evidence released before the resolution date confirming the fire has spread to Beverly Hills may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-palisades-fire-spread-to-beverly-hills-by-sunday
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