Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 39.5% on 21 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 21 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 39.5% on 21 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.9% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 13% on 22 Jan 2026. $13.81K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 23, 5:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 21 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | 39.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Strident-Gem | Yes | 615.04 |
| KARACAC | Yes | 171.51 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between Viktor Orbán and Péter Magyar, Viktor Orbán becomes the favorite in the "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" market (https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-hungary) for any four-hour period ending by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Viktor Orbán will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if he is ahead of Péter Magyar in more individual minutes than Péter Magyar is ahead of Viktor Orbán during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the "Next Prime Minister of Hungary" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-viktor-orbn-flip-pter-magyar-for-next-prime-minister-of-hungary or through the “Get Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour period window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-orbn-flip-magyar-for-next-hungary-pm-by-jan-31
| palmplum | Yes | 100 |
| atoutlemonde | Yes | 95.27 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 30 |
| PolyKetCat | Yes | 25.99 |
| Kalacs | Yes | 20 |
| matuko | Yes | 8.33 |
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