Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 1 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 154 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 48.5% on 1 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 6.5% on 1 Nov 2024. $753.92K traded over the market's life.
241 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 5:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 154 points, 1 Aug 2024 – 1 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2024 | 48.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lookup | Yes | 10K |
| Wooden-Clue | Yes | 3.12K |
| Lunar Lynx BBA9 | Yes | 2.08K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5, or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-gpt-5-in-2024
| Yes |
| 1.8K |
| Betmaster0000 | Yes | 1.41K |
| Tree3 | Yes | 1.39K |
| Krycu | Yes | 1.08K |
| windowsxpfan | Yes | 1.02K |
| velkyDave | Yes | 631.58 |
| wayofthewind | No | 588 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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