Analytics
Resolved Yes on 15 Mar 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 48% on 17 Feb 2023. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 17 Feb 2023 to 15 Mar 2023 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 100% on 15 Mar 2023 and the lowest 32% on 25 Feb 2023. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 65% on 10 Mar 2023. $120.73K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:40 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 82 points, 17 Feb 2023 – 17 May 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Feb 2023 | 48.0% |
| 17 May 2023 | 50.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Orbit D378 | No | 768.05K |
| Drab-Curriculum | No | 33.33 |
| Concerned-Destroyer | No | 15.38 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes GPT-4 available to users as a generally available public release (including any beta or test versions) by May 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise this question will resolve to “No”. GPT-4 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-4, or is a successor to GPT-3 in the way that GPT-3 was a successor to GPT-2; it cannot be branded as GPT3.5 or a version of GPT-3. Closed beta or a non-public release will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official OpenAI website (https://openai.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Resolution source: https://openai.com/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-release-gpt-4-by-may-31
| No |
| 14.71 |
| testing43433434 | No | 1.03 |
| Jade Atlas 64FA | No | 0.78 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
