Analytics
Resolved No on 31 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.6%. Yes opened at 23.5% on 28 May 2025. Before it settled, the high was 23.5% on 28 May 2025 and the low 1.3% on 25 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 16.5% on 19 Jun 2025. $1.1M traded over the market's life.
284 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 2, 12:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 28 May 2025 – 31 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 May 2025 | 23.5% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | 1.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 344.44K |
| Halloween66 | Yes | 26.26K |
| WoopyUrass | Yes | 21.43K |
| Agilord | Yes | 20K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-july
| gw00 | Yes | 18.18K |
| godnock | Yes | 13.41K |
| Giddy-Mochi | Yes | 12.86K |
| cowcat | Yes | 10.19K |
| LiviuColeasa | Yes | 9.64K |
| back-in-whack | Yes | 9.02K |
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