Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 28% on 31 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 368 daily closes on record from 31 Dec 2023 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 28% on 31 Dec 2023 and the lowest 0.3% on 31 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 11% on 2 Jan 2024. $907.18K traded over the market's life.
607 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 2:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 368 points, 31 Dec 2023 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Dec 2023 | 28.0% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pierre8181 | Yes | 29.11K |
| 0x5 | Yes | 10.06K |
| Tree3 | Yes | 3.44K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-openai-announce-it-has-achieved-agi-in-2024
| RedeemedChud | Yes | 3.05K |
| yolo-bitch | Yes | 2.37K |
| odzinski.peter | Yes | 2.06K |
| Accomplished-Pear | Yes | 1.98K |
| hattori | Yes | 1.58K |
| Qqqjswhje | Yes | 1.1K |
| DeckardCain | Yes | 947.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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