Will OPEC crude oil production be above 19 million barrels per day in May?

Resolved

No, settled Jun 11, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$4.6K

Resolved

Settled

Jun 11, 2026 UTC

Topic roomOil, gold and commodities

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Jun 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 69.5%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 29 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 29 Apr 2026 to 11 Jun 2026, the highest close was 60% on 30 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 10 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 30.5% on 11 Jun 2026. $4.59K traded over the market's life.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 12, 1:07 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 29 Apr 2026 – 11 Jun 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
29 Apr 2026	46.5%
11 Jun 2026	30.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
JaneRibeira	Yes	202.85
dopamineape	Yes	165.84
Lavincey	Yes	127.13

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered. If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.