Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 49% on 10 Oct 2025. Before it settled, the high was 49% on 10 Oct 2025 and the low 0.3% on 24 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 3.5% on 11 Oct 2025. $44.93K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 15, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 36 points · 10 Oct 2025 – 14 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2025 | 49.0% |
| 14 Nov 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 19.1K |
| donglai66 | Yes | 10.62K |
| rated | Yes | 1.81K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 1.31K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2025 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2025 is provided by NASA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2025-october-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
| Darling-Hill | Yes | 780.78 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 765 |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 388.47 |
| tindache | Yes | 384.1 |
| bifeidi | Yes | 256.25 |
| shizhaochui | Yes | 255 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
