Will October 2025 be the 1st hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Nov 14, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$91.3K

Resolved

Settled

Nov 14, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 14 Nov 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.4%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 10 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2025 to 14 Nov 2025, the highest close was 7% on 13 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.8% on 10 Nov 2025. $91.27K traded over the market's life.

29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 16, 12:33 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 10 Oct 2025 – 14 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Oct 2025	5.5%
14 Nov 2025	1.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	19.1K
donglai66	Yes	4.99K
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	1.26K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	765

10 of 29 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2025 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2025 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2025 is provided by NASA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.