Analytics
Yes is at 7.5%, down 11 points from 18% when the market opened on 6 Aug 2026.
Across the 80 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 26% on 21 Aug 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 18.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 11% on 13 Oct 2026.
$6.50T+ ranks fourth of the 7 outcomes in “Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?”. $5.00-$5.50T leads at 27.5%; $5.50-$6.00T is at 23%.
$24.8 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.29K since listing. The order book holds $4.72K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 138 trades, $394.62 bought Yes and $1.71K bought No.
The largest Yes position is cacros with 346 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1K. Ten wallets hold 86% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 80 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 18.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 7.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.03K |
| lihpare | No | 366 |
| cacros | Yes | 346.35 |
This market will resolve according to Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nvidias-market-cap-end-of-2026
| BornAgain26 |
| Yes |
| 300 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 260.09 |
| poluser2026 | Yes | 250.85 |
| Twei | No | 238.63 |
| 123987456 | Yes | 165 |
| HDGB | Yes | 133.04 |
| PrimePenguin | Yes | 122.1 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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