Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 3 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 8% on 18 Nov 2025 and the low 0.1% on 12 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 0.1% on 12 Jul 2026. $137.35M traded over the market's life.
1,000 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 13, 3:00 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 345 points · 3 Jul 2025 – 12 Jul 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | 5.5% |
| 12 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 52.33M |
| Bright Vector 135D | Yes | 3.14M |
| thesingularityisnear | Yes | 2.16M |
This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/world-cup-winner
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| wiggawithadream | Yes | 1.85M |
| Worse-Caliber | Yes | 1.34M |
| Elliptical-Formation | Yes | 1.33M |
| justice2026 | Yes | 1.04M |
| ThisAgain | Yes | 921.16K |
| Gourmet1 | Yes | 855.32K |
| tyrant007 | Yes | 749.67K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
