Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 43% on 2 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 132 daily closes on record from 2 Nov 2025 to 20 Mar 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43% on 2 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 9.5% on 3 Nov 2025.
80 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 21, 4:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 132 points, 2 Nov 2025 – 20 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2025 | 43.0% |
| 20 Mar 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 653.8K |
| Immense-Predecessor | Yes | 33K |
| DickTurbin | Yes | 16.03K |
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”. If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-ncaa-tournament-winner
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 6.5K |
| repnick | Yes | 6K |
| cmcph | Yes | 5.28K |
| SpicyMushroom | Yes | 5K |
| BigFishSushiChief | Yes | 4.04K |
| KerolynRabar | Yes | 3.62K |
| NopetyDopety | Yes | 3.07K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
