Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 82.2%. Yes opened at 41.5% on 5 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 5 Mar 2026, the highest close was 41.5% on 5 Feb 2026 and the lowest 9.3% on 9 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 11.1% on 6 Feb 2026.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 6, 10:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 5 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 41.5% |
| 5 Mar 2026 | 17.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 45.02K |
| Siziriv | Yes | 17.42K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 2.34K |
| rated | Yes | 1.6K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-to-leave-the-trump-cabinet
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 1K |
| bamesjond | Yes | 206.33 |
| yzhaobk-nrt | Yes | 105 |
| Misty Atlas 0068 | Yes | 100 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 75 |
| Wtft | Yes | 53.07 |
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