Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 15 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 120 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2025 to 10 Feb 2026, the highest close was 16.1% on 11 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 16.1% on 11 Nov 2025. $57.53K traded over the market's life.
37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 11, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 120 points, 15 Oct 2025 – 10 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2025 | 4.5% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 48.52K |
| JuliusNakamoto | Yes | 771.63 |
| dagelf | Yes | 632.23 |
This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30". If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companys-ai-will-first-hit-1500-on-chatbot-arena-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 574.83 |
| Fartard | Yes | 185 |
| AIB | Yes | 130 |
| Rlso | Yes | 46.62 |
| Owwwnn | Yes | 45.2 |
| Shipoo | Yes | 37.03 |
| Blaorra | Yes | 35.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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