Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Aug 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 2 Aug 2023. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 2 Aug 2023 to 15 Aug 2023, the highest close was 28% on 7 Aug 2023 and the lowest 0.4% on 15 Aug 2023. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 22% on 11 Aug 2023. $64.49K traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 16, 4:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 2 Aug 2023 – 15 Aug 2023, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2023 | 22.5% |
| 15 Aug 2023 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| nosis | Yes | 320 |
| Dadumpaa | Yes | 157.89 |
| Colorless-Liability | Yes | 125 |
| Mirrrad | Yes | 125 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if troops from countries other than Niger conduct officially acknowledged offensive military operations within the sovereign territory of Niger between August 1, 2023 and August 14, 2023 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the intervention to count toward a "Yes" resolution, the officially acknowledged offensive military operations must involve that country's physical military presence within the sovereign territory of Niger. For the purposes of this market, "offensive military operations" resulting in a "Yes" resolution specifically do not include actions exclusively related to surveillance performed by aircraft, drones, satellites, etc. Official acknowledgement must include statements indicating foreign military intervention from the foreign government making the intervention. A consensus of credible reporting may be used to ascertain the validity of an official acknowledgement.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-nigers-coup-trigger-military-intervention
| Suburban-Slot | Yes | 75.46 |
| m55 | Yes | 53.81 |
| Meek-Diagram | Yes | 20 |
| martijnarts | Yes | 6.25 |
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