Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 26 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 99 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 51.5% on 26 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 14.5% on 28 Sep 2025. $7.78K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 99 points, 26 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2025 | 51.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 362.88 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 269 |
| PolymarketBoy | No | 195 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 23:59 ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-recognize-palestine-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 190 |
| Kingjusti | Yes | 169.99 |
| Notable-Median | Yes | 150 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 144 |
| Salacinos | Yes | 123.22 |
| Ghettomaster | Yes | 119.04 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 89.06 |
