Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 12 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 74.5% on 30 Dec 2025 and the low 0.3% on 25 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 25.5% on 4 Jan 2026. $18.97K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 53 points, 12 Dec 2025 – 1 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Dec 2025 | 48.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 244 |
| floppysven | No | 199.35 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | Yes | 50 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 31 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Glenn Flight 3 (NG-3) successfully launches from its launch pad by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin (https://www.youtube.com/@blueorigin/streams), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of New Glenn with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-new-glenn-flight-3-launch-by
New to prediction markets?
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 0.55 |
| d.ddd.d..d | No | 0.03 |
| epps | No | 0.02 |
| Inthegamespain | Yes | 0.01 |
| thepolwinner | No | 0.01 |
