Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by December 31, 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$2.2K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 12 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 47.5% on 12 Dec 2025 and the lowest 1.6% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 21.5% on 14 Dec 2025. $2.16K traded over the market's life.

11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 16, 8:17 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 12 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Dec 2025	47.5%
1 Jan 2026	1.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Emerald Pioneer D14A	Yes	425
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	328
Bold Scout BD7E	Yes	270
Jade Harbor B075	Yes	230

10 of 11 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Glenn Flight 3 (NG-3) successfully launches from its launch pad by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin (https://www.youtube.com/@blueorigin/streams), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of New Glenn with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.