Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 41%. Yes opened at 57.5% on 3 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 3 Jun 2026 to 30 Jun 2026, the highest close was 64.5% on 23 Jun 2026 and the lowest 51.5% on 16 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 63% on 21 Jun 2026. $191.54K traded over the market's life.
249 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 5:53 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 3 Jun 2026 – 30 Jun 2026, chart shows 45%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jun 2026 | 57.5% |
| 30 Jun 2026 | 59.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Alfredo333 | Yes | 3.98K |
| Quirky-Inconvenience-Flick | Yes | 2.72K |
| Violet Tide 65C9 | Yes | 2.69K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/world-cup-nation-to-reach-round-of-16
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