Will NDP win between 16 and 20 seats in the next Canadian Election?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 30, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$21.4K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 30, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 19% on 21 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 21 Mar 2025 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 19% on 21 Mar 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 30 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 10% on 22 Mar 2025. $21.36K traded over the market's life.

14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 30, 4:20 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 21 Mar 2025 – 30 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
21 Mar 2025	19.0%
30 Apr 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	13.84K
crylibcry	Yes	1.17K
Clumsy-Period	Yes	204.08

10 of 14 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The next Canadian general election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. This market will resolve according to the number of seats the New Democratic Party (NDP) wins in the House of Commons as a result of the next Canadian general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election aren't known by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Canadian government, specifically Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).