Analytics
“Will Navan Inc not IPO by December 31, 2025?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Navan IPO: Day 1 Closing Market Cap”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 1 Nov 2025. $25.38K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 11 daily price points from Oct 22, 2025 UTC to Nov 1, 2025 UTC (Yes between 0.3% and 41.0%); 13 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 99.8% of the loaded shares; 109 recent public fills from 80 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve based on Navan, Inc.’s market capitalization at the official closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No IPO by December 31, 2025.” Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Navan, Inc.’s first day of trading, for example, a circuit breaker or half day, the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market. As of October 2025, Navan, Inc. has filed for an IPO, but the first trading date has not yet been officially set.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/navan-ipo-day-1-closing-market-cap
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 11 points · 22 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2025 | 5.5% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.3% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.85K |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 5.18K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Yes |
| 1.61K |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 437 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 128.99 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 26 |
| shine | Yes | 25 |
| orackbobama | Yes | 16.67 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 14 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 12 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
