Analytics
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“Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $435 in September?” is a finance prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “What will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit in September 2026?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 1, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 23, 9:00 AM UTC, Yes trades at 4.3¢, a 4.3% implied chance, $255.57 traded in the last 24 hours, $423.73 resting in the order book, a 6.7% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 25 hourly price points from Sep 22, 2026 UTC to Sep 23, 2026 UTC (Yes between 2.8% and 4.3%); 11 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 98.6% of the loaded shares; 13 recent public fills from 8 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during September 2026, any 1-minute candle for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-msft-hit-in-september-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PippiTrader | No | 101.14 |
| yesasdgfaskdfhask | Yes | 45.25 |
| rubencrypto | Yes | 42.86 |
| degenpunter | No | 40.1 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 20.2 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20 |
| romanew-7-spread05 | Yes | 18.75 |
| vAIctor | No | 10 |
| wert4 | No | 5.08 |
| GellerCharlie | Yes | 4.98 |