Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 21% on 16 Aug 2025. Before it settled, the high was 21% on 16 Aug 2025 and the low 0.1% on 29 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 17.5% on 18 Sep 2025. $68.27K traded over the market's life.
62 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 140 points · 16 Aug 2025 – 1 Jan 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2025 | 21.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| cowcat | Yes | 3.51K |
| guansonsyxt | Yes | 1.1K |
| LukeGamma | Yes | 999.97 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits 500 million subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-mrbeast-hit-500-million-subscribers-by-dec-31
| Yes |
| 944.05 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| Disgrazieto | Yes | 318.73 |
| chatleya | Yes | 259.2 |
| SmartBetter | Yes | 200 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 192 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 176 |
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