Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 28 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 74 daily closes on record from 28 Apr 2026 to 10 Jul 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 28 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 10 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 8% on 29 Apr 2026. $479.78K traded over the market's life.
147 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 10, 11:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 74 points, 28 Apr 2026 – 10 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Apr 2026 | 48.5% |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| saudi2222 | Yes | 54.1K |
| factron1233 | Yes | 10.47K |
| Jaunty-Steppingstone | Yes | 4.93K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/world-cup-nation-to-reach-final
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