Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 28, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.1M

Resolved

Settled

Feb 28, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 28 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 42% on 28 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 32 daily closes on record from 28 Jan 2026 to 28 Feb 2026, the highest close was 42% on 28 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 16 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 0.4% on 29 Jan 2026. $1.09M traded over the market's life.

82 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 12:25 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 28 Jan 2026 – 28 Feb 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	850.23K
kaskaderney	Yes	40K
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	37.64K

10 of 82 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on February 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.