Will monthly inflation be lower than 1.5% in December?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 14, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$3.8K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 14, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 14 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 24.5% on 25 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 52 daily closes on record from 25 Nov 2025 to 14 Jan 2026, the highest close was 32.5% on 10 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 32.5% on 10 Dec 2025. $3.8K traded over the market's life.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 15, 8:21 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 52 points, 25 Nov 2025 – 14 Jan 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
25 Nov 2025	24.5%
14 Jan 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.52K
paspor	Yes	390
flow-trader-at-optiver	Yes	372.43

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentinian, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) increased in December 2025 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2025 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on January 13, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % mensual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.