Analytics
Yes is at 2.6%, down 47 points from 50% when the market opened on 19 Aug 2026.
Across the 67 daily closes on record from 19 Aug 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 19 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 12 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.8%; a month before, 2.9%. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 5.5% on 20 Aug 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?”.
$34.02 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $411.09 since listing. The order book holds $18.73K, with a 4.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Lyka2.718281 with 110 shares; the largest No position is ggkykk with 93.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 7:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 67 points, 19 Aug 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 2.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Lyka2.718281 | Yes | 110.19 |
| ggkykk | No | 93.02 |
| KingZeManel | No | 89.66 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-mojtaba-khamenei-leave-iran-byptptpt-20260720003505489
| tetrase |
| No |
| 61.2 |
| A.D. | Yes | 50 |
| AJSV | Yes | 46.53 |
| BackingFavesEsports | Yes | 30 |
| jackjazk-ladder | No | 30 |
| Taut-Aside | Yes | 20 |
| romanew-7-spread05 | Yes | 16.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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