Will 'Moana 2' gross less than $135m on 5-day opening weekend?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 2, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.2M

Resolved

Settled

Dec 2, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 13 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 13 Nov 2024 to 2 Dec 2024, the highest close was 25% on 17 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Dec 2024. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 13% on 18 Nov 2024. $1.22M traded over the market's life.

37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 3, 6:47 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 13 Nov 2024 – 2 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–30%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	321.6K
Profuse-Art	Yes	24.28K
KmuTechG	Yes	11.6K
Retweet	Yes	6.45K

10 of 37 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on how much 'Moana 2' (2024) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” tab on https://the-numbers.com/movie/Moana-2-(2024)#tab=summary will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (November 27 - December 1) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Moana 2' (2024) grosses less than $135,000,000 on its 5-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 5-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by December 9, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.