Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 1.6% on 7 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 63 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2025 to 10 Mar 2025, the highest close was 12% on 9 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.6 points down, to 0.3% on 11 Jan 2025. $1.38M traded over the market's life.
44 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 10, 3:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 63 points, 7 Jan 2025 – 10 Mar 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2025 | 1.6% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 169.56K |
| Golden Harbor 1DF4 | Yes | 11.66K |
| Jamison | Yes | 1.7K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first leader of The Liberal Party of Canada following Justin Trudeau is Mélanie Joly. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next permanent leader of The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau. Any interim or acting leader of the party will not count toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official information from The Liberal Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice. If Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada or the next leader of the The Liberal Party of Canada after Justin Trudeau is not announced by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-leader-of-canadian-liberal-party
| Yes |
| 1.53K |
| Bright Maven CD51 | Yes | 550 |
| ijORimgqCM | Yes | 532 |
| Orpw | Yes | 515 |
| kefteme | Yes | 463.96 |
| fYUvvNrmZg | Yes | 447.11 |
| bFriynxXec | Yes | 380.88 |
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