Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 20.5%. Yes opened at 81.5% on 15 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2025 to 25 Jan 2025, the highest close was 89% on 22 Jan 2025 and the lowest 54% on 17 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 60% on 23 Jan 2025. $118.74K traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 4:41 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 15 Jan 2025 – 25 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2025 | 81.5% |
| 25 Jan 2025 | 79.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kathiehodl | Yes | 51 |
| IRanIchTeam | No | 0.01 |
| antoshkavlasio | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mitch McConnell votes to confirm Pete Hegseth in the first roll-call vote on confirmation as Secretary of Defense. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If another individual is confirmed as U.S. Defense Secretary for President Donald Trump, this market will resolve to “No”. If Hegseth is appointed through a recess appointment, or is otherwise officially made the Secretary of Defense without a Senate vote, this market will resolve to “No”. If no vote occurs before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the official vote count published on the U.S. Senate website, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-senators-will-vote-to-confirm-pete-hegseth
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