Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 22% on 27 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 27 May 2026 to 30 Jun 2026, the highest close was 24% on 28 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 7.5% on 29 May 2026. $828.09 traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 30, 6:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 27 May 2026 – 30 Jun 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 May 2026 | 22.0% |
| 30 Jun 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 4.09K |
| Anon321321 | Yes | 1.17K |
| balthazar | Yes | 202.77 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-second-best-coding-ai-model-end-of-june
| Yes |
| 187.9 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 150 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 130 |
| Indigo Lynx C16C | Yes | 120 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 45.99 |
| Kronosssss | Yes | 14 |
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