Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 87.2%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 8 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 53 daily closes on record from 8 Jan 2026 to 2 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 30.5% on 8 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1% on 11 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points up, to 13.3% on 21 Jan 2026. $6.98K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 3, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 53 points, 8 Jan 2026 – 2 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | 30.5% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | 12.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.63K |
| TENETENET | Yes | 368.92 |
| 16r0ob | Yes | 187.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The 32nd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards, honoring the best achievements in film and television performances for the year 2025, will be presented on March 1, 2026, at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles, California, United States. Nominations are scheduled to be announced January 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor wins the Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture, otherwise it will resolve to "No". If for any reason no winner announced by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In the case of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed actor whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Screen Actors Guild, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.sagawards.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/the-actor-awards-winner-best-supporting-actor-film
| Yes |
| 178.88 |
| Archnemsis9 | Yes | 100 |
| k1tten | Yes | 82 |
| Scornful-Conductor | Yes | 50 |
| tiancs | Yes | 50 |
| hesure | Yes | 50 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 43 |
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