Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 5.1% on 23 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 64 daily closes on record from 23 Nov 2024 to 25 Jan 2025, the highest close was 15.9% on 4 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 20 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 4.4% on 5 Dec 2024. $113.19K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 5:09 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 64 points, 23 Nov 2024 – 25 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Nov 2024 | 5.1% |
| 25 Jan 2025 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 174.26K |
| PolyDump | Yes | 400 |
| Gabriellis | Yes | 210.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump appoints Mike Rogers as Secretary of Defense by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A candidate will be considered to have been appointed if they are confirmed to the position through a senate vote, appointed through a recess appointment, or are otherwise officially made the Secretary of Defense. This market will resolve based on the first Trump candidate who is appointed to this position - if another candidate is appointed to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary
| Yes |
| 100 |
| musk919 | Yes | 31 |
| Keen Ledger 9960 | No | 5.02 |
| menolus | Yes | 1.82 |
| Maruuuuus | Yes | 1.07 |
| bandmankevo2 | Yes | 1 |
| Cobalt Harbor 0E10 | Yes | 0.36 |
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