Will MicroStrategy market cap dip to $50b in 2024?

cryptoResolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$279.1K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 28 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 28 Nov 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 19% on 3 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 8.5% on 6 Dec 2024. $279.06K traded over the market's life.

91 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 1, 11:07 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 28 Nov 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Nov 2024	9.5%
1 Jan 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ed666	Yes	1.1K
andreaxbt1	Yes	1K
Cobalt Beacon F1EC	Yes	160.71
betaverse	Yes	156.25

10 of 91 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the market cap of MicroStrategy (MSTR) is has a market cap of $50,000,000,000 or lower as of market close for any day between November 27, 2024, and December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The market capitalization of MicroStrategy will be determined by checking Google Finance’s “Market Cap” metric for MSTR at the time of market close (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSTR:NASDAQ). If Google Finance’s market cap data for MSTR is not available, another credible source for market capitalization, will be used to resolve this market.