Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 78.5% on 2 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 59 daily closes on record from 2 Jan 2025 to 1 Mar 2025, the highest close was 78.5% on 2 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Mar 2025. Its largest one-day move was 69 points down, to 8.2% on 25 Feb 2025. $3.3M traded over the market's life.
123 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 59 points, 2 Jan 2025 – 1 Mar 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jan 2025 | 78.5% |
| 1 Mar 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Babylonscorpion | Yes | 161.37K |
| strader | Yes | 87.75K |
| KimbalMusk | Yes | 79.17K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On December 30, MicroStrategy announced that, " the Company, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 446,400 bitcoins" (see: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltb564490bc5201f31/blt86aee42aac939a6f/6772966708d14f09dfda7bd4/form-8-k_12-30-2024.pdf). This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy holds 500,000 or more bitcoins at any point by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-microstrategy-hold-500k-btc-before-march
| Yes |
| 38.39K |
| ZH1 | Yes | 32.01K |
| Fartard | Yes | 11.11K |
| Lenvis | Yes | 10.98K |
| heuer | Yes | 7.34K |
| blizzy7 | Yes | 6.32K |
| UnscrupulousFellow | Yes | 4.6K |
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