Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before 2025?

cryptoResolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.0M

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7% on 13 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 13 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 26% on 16 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 26% on 16 Dec 2024. $1.04M traded over the market's life.

73 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 2:43 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 13 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Babylonscorpion	Yes	50.1K
Solar Kestrel 4586	Yes	2.89K
DonnieBolena	Yes	2.65K
Gilfoyle69	Yes	2.56K

10 of 73 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On December 9, MicroStrategy announced that together with its subsidiaries, it held an aggregate of approximately 423,650 bitcoins (see: https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-acquires-21-550-btc-and-achieves-btc-yield-of-68-7-ytd-now-holds-423-650-btc_12-09-2024). This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy holds 500,000 or more bitcoins at any point before December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will announcements from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor as to their total BTC holdings.