Analytics
Resolved No on 28 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 14 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 11.5% on 14 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 17 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 2.5% on 15 Oct 2026. $3.27K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 28, 10:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 14 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 565.09 |
| sbimbg | Yes | 500 |
| cool.keith | Yes | 264.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft's total capital expenditures, including finance leases, for the upcoming first fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, are above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-microsoft-msft-q1-total-capital-expenditures-be-above-20261008120059000
| Yes |
| 81 |
| Convex79 | Yes | 71.4 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | Yes | 22 |
| gfdgfvfvssdd | Yes | 20 |
| Jam-Packed-Fingerling | Yes | 20 |
| Keen Scout F4A3 | Yes | 20 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
