Analytics
“Will Michigan be the closest state?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Closest state in the Presidential election?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 1 Dec 2024. $140.15K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 54 daily price points from Oct 9, 2024 UTC to Dec 1, 2024 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 15.2%); 28 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 98.9% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 148 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 54 points · 9 Oct 2024 – 1 Dec 2024 · axis zoomed to 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2024 | 12.5% |
| 1 Dec 2024 | 0.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 89.06K |
| seiko | Yes | 1.47K |
| Skypeg | Yes |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Michigan has the smallest margin of victory between the first and second place candidates of any state in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of resolving this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first place candidate and the second-place candidate. Percentages of the votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this state for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. The respective percentages of the vote won will be determined based on the official vote count once each listed state has certified their votes. If there is a recount in any listed state before certification, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is certified. If a recount occurs after certification, the recount will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/closest-state-in-the-presidential-election
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 1.14K |
| Edible-Dependency | Yes | 500 |
| Alex4Rep | Yes | 427.19 |
| OptimalDimbus | Yes | 333.33 |
| Allin3 | Yes | 315.27 |
| SamHyde | Yes | 232.85 |
| volatery | Yes | 161.42 |
| ccbttn | Yes | 153.19 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard