Analytics
Resolved No on 9 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 92.3%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 21 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 49 daily closes on record from 21 Feb 2026 to 9 May 2026 (29 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.5% on 8 Mar 2026 and the lowest 7.7% on 9 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 13% on 23 Feb 2026. $84.7K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 10, 3:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 21 Feb 2026 – 9 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Feb 2026 | 47.5% |
| 9 May 2026 | 7.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 19.66K |
| FinallyGotItWorking | Yes | 5.04K |
| jgdbvr | Yes | 2.69K |
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/farrer-by-election-winner
| No |
| 2.23K |
| Leavethishere | Yes | 1.9K |
| 59squared | Yes | 396.74 |
| Unwieldy-Impress | Yes | 270.97 |
| Decent-Corporal | Yes | 205.37 |
| HustlaGenius | Yes | 187.86 |
| Spectrum | Yes | 183 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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