Analytics
Resolved No on 27 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 7 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 48.5% on 7 Feb 2026 and the low 0.1% on 23 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 42 points up, to 42.4% on 29 Apr 2026. $3.16K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 27, 9:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 80 points · 7 Feb 2026 – 27 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Feb 2026 | 48.5% |
| 27 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.85K |
| ouchandi | Yes | 150.42 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 149.99 |
| rongziwu | Yes | 105.86 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tx-38-republican-primary-winner
| rated | Yes | 90 |
| cizhiye | Yes | 79.49 |
| Quixotic-Nonconformist | Yes | 73.77 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 64.42 |
| wendypeekaboo | Yes | 62.31 |
| t189 | Yes | 50 |
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