Resolved No on 30 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.7%. Yes opened at 46% on 6 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 56 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2026 to 30 Sep 2026, the highest close was 64.4% on 13 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 27 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 25.4% on 22 Sep 2026. $5.41K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 7:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 6 Aug 2026 – 30 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | 46.0% |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 4.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 421.07 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 162.45 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to Meta's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/metas-market-cap-end-of-september-2026
| Yes |
| 30.22 |
| Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance | Yes | 28 |
| nicgf2000 | Yes | 22.27 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| Celebrated-Howard | Yes | 5.1 |
| Satisfied-Authority-Calorie | Yes | 5 |
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