
Resolved Yes on 10 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 7.5%. Yes opened at 46% on 7 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 7 Jan 2026 to 10 Jan 2026, the highest close was 48% on 9 Jan 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 10 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 41 points down, to 7.5% on 10 Jan 2026. $7.28K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 11, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 7 Jan 2026 – 10 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2026 | 46.0% |
| 10 Jan 2026 | 7.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 599 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 388 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 155 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 106 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if someone other than Luís Marques Mendes becomes the favorite in the "Portugal Presidential Election" (https://polymarket.com/event/portugal-presidential-election?) for any four-hour period ending by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Someone other than Luís Marques Mendes will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if another individual is ahead of Luís Marques Mendes in a majority of individual minutes during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the "Portugal Presidential Election" market, which can be viewed using the below listed bar charts or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the two-hour period window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. More tracking links will be provided if necessary. António José Seguro: https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-seguro-flip-mendes-in-portugal-presidential-election João Cotrim Figueiredo: https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-figueiredo-flip-mendes-in-portugal-presidential-election Henrique Gouveia e Melo: https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-henrique-gouveia-e-melo-flip-mendes-in-portugal-presidential-election André Ventura: https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-ventura-flip-mendes-in-portugal-presidential-election Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
| kp9 | No | 102.39 |
| mcooked | No | 84.29 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 66 |
| tiancs | No | 50 |
| BKno95 | No | 38 |
| pv34 | No | 20 |
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