Analytics
Resolved No on 6 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.9%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 5 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2025 to 6 Dec 2025, the highest close was 34.5% on 5 Dec 2025 and the lowest 2.1% on 6 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 2.1% on 6 Dec 2025. $4.83K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 7, 8:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 5 Dec 2025 – 6 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2025 | 34.5% |
| 6 Dec 2025 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mailsnave56 | Yes | 196.98 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| YTGCape | Yes | 54.29 |
| EmilyHerrera1665 | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The World Cup Draw is scheduled to take place on December 5, 2025, 12PM ET. (https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/47165954/2026-world-cup-match-schedule-plan-revealed-day-draw). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the scheduled event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). If no such event is aired by December 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the event. Only the official English-language FIFA stream will count. The event will be streamed on the FIFA YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@fifa/streams).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-said-at-the-fifa-world-cup-draw-on-december-5
| Candid-Dad | Yes | 13.89 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 12 |
| Reasonable-Artery | Yes | 5.71 |
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