Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 26 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 50.5% on 26 Nov 2025 and the low 0.1% on 12 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 7% on 27 Nov 2025. $49.81K traded over the market's life.
51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 22, 6:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 220 points · 26 Nov 2025 – 22 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Nov 2025 | 50.5% |
| 22 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 9.72K |
| Keen Kestrel E421 | Yes | 1K |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 649.87 |
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/az-01-republican-primary-winner
New to prediction markets?
| balthazar | Yes | 367.05 |
| ofek-w | Yes | 333.33 |
| plainfolder | Yes | 270.86 |
| ttj01 | Yes | 250 |
| Vivid-Reference | Yes | 250 |
| korda77 | Yes | 218 |
| pestanimal | Yes | 200 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
