Will Mario Adinolfi win the 2026 Selvazzano Dentro by-election?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 23, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 23, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 23 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 1.3% on 14 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 14 Mar 2026 to 23 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 3.8% on 15 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 23 Mar 2026.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 24, 10:09 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 14 Mar 2026 – 23 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
14 Mar 2026	1.3%
23 Mar 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
yangguang0511	Yes	1K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	631.66
wxy7766	Yes	500
cry.eth2	Yes	90.78

10 of 10 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A by-election for a seat from the Selvazzano Dentro constituency (Veneto 2 - 02) in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of the Italian parliament, is expected to take place on 22 and 23 March 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Massimo Bitonci as Regional Assessor for Business and Commerce of the Veneto Region. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Selvazzano Dentro (Veneto 2 - 02) seat in the Italian Chamber of Deputies. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Italian government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://dait.interno.gov.it/elezioni/speciale-elezioni).