Will March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$105.1K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 9, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 24.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 27 Feb 2026 to 9 Apr 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24.5% on 27 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 9 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 5.2% on 28 Feb 2026. $105.1K traded over the market's life.

34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 10, 4:28 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 9 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
27 Feb 2026	24.5%
9 Apr 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	13.08K
Lunar Meteor B059	Yes	706.53
Royal Vector 3E8F	Yes	686.36
YettaJulia	Yes	520

10 of 34 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.