Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 27.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 27.5% on 27 Feb 2026 and the low 0.1% on 9 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 11% on 28 Feb 2026. $68.21K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 10, 3:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 9 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 27.5% |
| 9 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 13.08K |
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 2K |
| KMKPROJEKT | Yes | 1.35K |
| labistiiia | Yes | 500 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record. Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-march-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-on-record
| FloraMurray | Yes | 333.73 |
| norealtime | Yes | 250 |
| nikitaxce | Yes | 250 |
| noid2 | Yes | 249.99 |
| KerwinChaucer | Yes | 233.22 |
| Loboej | Yes | 227.09 |
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