Will Manuela Magno win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 9, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$3.5M

Resolved

Settled

Feb 9, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 25% on 30 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 165 daily closes on record from 30 Aug 2025 to 9 Feb 2026, the highest close was 25% on 30 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 0.4% on 31 Aug 2025. $3.48M traded over the market's life.

96 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 9, 4:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 165 points, 30 Aug 2025 – 9 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	2.33M
flow-trader-at-optiver	Yes	123.36K
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	111.48K

Rules

How this market was settled

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).