Will "M3GAN 2.0" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $16M?

Resolved

Yes, settled Jun 30, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$95.9K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jun 30, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 30 Jun 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 70.5% on 26 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2025 to 30 Jun 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 30 Jun 2025 and the lowest 70.5% on 26 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 98.1% on 28 Jun 2025. $95.93K traded over the market's life.

16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 12:26 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 26 Jun 2025 – 30 Jun 2025, chart shows 60%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
26 Jun 2025	70.5%
30 Jun 2025	99.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	47.3K
KingWrong	No	2.79K
floopybirdman	No	1.23K
turnaround	No	1K

10 of 16 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to how much “M3GAN 2.0” (2025) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Box Office” https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/M3GAN-2-0-(2025)#tab=summary will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (June 27 - June 29) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by July 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.