Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 20% and 22% of votes in the first round?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$5.9K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 19, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 19 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.5%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 1 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 19 daily closes on record from 1 Jan 2026 to 19 Jan 2026, the highest close was 31.5% on 1 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 19 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 6% on 14 Jan 2026. $5.92K traded over the market's life.

28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 4:21 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 1 Jan 2026 – 19 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Jan 2026	31.5%
19 Jan 2026	1.6%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	3.1K
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	688.81
paspor	Yes	460.3

10 of 28 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the vote share Luís Marques Mendes wins in the first round of the Portuguese presidential election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by Luís Marques Mendes. If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).